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Kamala Harris yet to speak as Trump wins White House.

Kamala Harris yet to speak as Trump wins White House.

Kamala Harris has lost her bid to become America’s first woman leader, as her Republican rival Donald Trump surged to a decisive victory in the US presidential election. The vice-president is yet to speak or concede, despite it becoming ...

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Trump wins 2024 presidential election.

Trump wins 2024 presidential election.

What you need to know • Trump wins: Former President Donald Trump will defeat Vice President Kamala Harris and return to the White House, CNN projects, in a moment of historic consequence for American democracy. His projected win in battleground Wisconsin put the ...

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Tinubu orders immediate release of End Bad Governance protesters

Tinubu orders immediate release of End Bad Governance protesters

President Bola Tinubu on Monday directed the immediate release of all minors who were arrested over their alleged participation in August’s #EndBadGovernance protests. The Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, announced this to State House correspondents during ...

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2 Kano NNPP Reps Dump Kwankwasiyya.

2 Kano NNPP Reps Dump Kwankwasiyya.

Two members of the House of Representatives from Kano State, both representing the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), have announced their exit from the Kwankwasiyya Movement led by former Kano State governor and NNPP leader, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. ...

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maximum of three vehicles in official convoys Says President Tinubu

maximum of three vehicles in official convoys Says President Tinubu

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has restricted Ministers, Ministers of State, and Heads of Agencies of the Federal Government to a maximum of three vehicles in their official convoys. Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy ...

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Almost two weeks to Election Day, I feel more uncertain about this year’s result than any election I’ve covered professionally. Some of that is due to the polls – they’re really tight – but it’s also because for every good signal for Donald Trump, there seems to be a good one for Kamala Harris.

Many Americans believe this election has a lot on the line. And yet to me, it’s still a race with multiple potential outcomes – from a clear Harris victory to a contest that can’t be projected until late into election night (or week) to a decisive Trump win.
Let’s start with a simple proposition: Harris’ easiest path victory runs through winning the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If she loses in the Sun Belt battlegrounds (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina), carrying the three Great Lakes states, along with Nebraska’s 2nd District and all the other states Joe Biden won in 2020, would get Harris to exactly 270 electoral votes.

Polling averages in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin show the margins between Harris and Trump at under a point right now. Were that to hold until Election Day, it would be the first time in at least 50 years that any of those three states had final average margins within a point.

More than that, the margins in those states have been consistently close since Harris got into the race in July. Neither Trump nor Harris has ever led in any of those states by 5 points or more, which mirrors the national polling. It’s the first time in over 60 years that no candidate has led by 5 points or more nationally at any point in the race.

Many Republicans are hoping that the close polling points to a blowout win for Trump next month. The former president outperformed the polls significantly in 2016 and 2020. If Trump did so again, he would likely coast to victory, getting over 300 electoral votes.